Newly released data suggest that the growing number of veterinarians in the United States may eventually outpace future demand for veterinary services.

What the data show

As today’s chart shows, steady growth is projected over the next several years for three indicators or influencers of demand for veterinary services: consumer expenditures on veterinary services, personal disposable income, and the number of pet-owning households.

However, the same cannot be said for the supply of veterinarians. That growth rate, based on the current number of veterinary colleges and estimated class sizes, is expected to diverge from the projected  growth in demand for veterinary services. What’s more, this situation is expected to worsen if 13 proposed new veterinary colleges start graduating students.

Also notable is the gap between the projected growth in personal overall spending on pets (including veterinary care) and spending specifically on veterinary services. While consumers are willing to invest in their pets, veterinary services constitute only a portion of this expenditure.

These findings from the Brakke Veterinary Workforce Forecast project, which was commissioned by the AVMA, reflect potential compound annual growth rates from 2024 through 2050, based on historical growth over the past 20 years. 

What does this mean?

The projections indicate that the current educational infrastructure is, indeed, sufficient to meet the demand for veterinarians to 2035—bucking claims that we’re heading toward a future workforce shortage. 

Such claims have been used to support dangerous proposals, such as creation of a midlevel veterinary practitioner. These proposals pose a serious threat to the quality of veterinary services, animal health and welfare, public confidence and trust, the safety of animal-derived products, and public health. Unsurprisingly, midlevel practitioner proposals have faced widespread professional disapproval.

Beyond 2035, the forecast suggests a looming challenge for the veterinary profession: The expected increase in the number of veterinarians may outpace demand for veterinary services driven by pet ownership, available disposable income, and consumer spending on veterinary services. It might require a substantial increase in utilization of veterinary services to comfortably absorb the additional veterinarians—and without that, the economic health of the veterinary profession could be at risk. 

As for the projected growth in overall pet expenditures, there is opportunity to boost the smaller growth rate in spending on veterinary services through strategies aimed at garnering a greater percentage of that overall spending.

Overall, the findings remind us of the importance of a proactive approach to maintaining and growing demand for veterinary services.

What can we do with this information?

Veterinary practice leaders can leverage these findings to inform hiring and client service strategies. This could involve increasing outreach to new and potential clients, elevating service to clients, and taking steps to enhance practice efficiency.

Additionally, practices would do well to explore ways to enhance retention strategies for current team members while preparing to address the anticipated increase in requests for clinical experiential learning from a growing number of veterinary students.

By understanding these trends, veterinary practice leaders can better prepare for the future and ensure that we continue to meet the needs of our team members, along with pet owners and their pets.